Esperemos que com as constantes intervenções dos elementos credíveis, isentos e independentes da economia mundial, Portugal consiga em uníssono, prosseguir um plano de consolidação económica. Este é apenas mais um artigo do Wall Street Journal.
Erwin Stelzer - The Wall Street Journal
The future course of events in euroland is now more or less clear. The International Monetary Fund and Greece's euroland colleagues will come to the aid of Greece to the tune of a bit more than €100 billion ($132 billion), but it remains more rather than less likely that there will be some sort of restructuring, with creditors probably taking a haircut—a.k.a. a loss—on the order of 30%. German officials are so frightened of a euro-zone-wide meltdown, and the possibility of deep losses for its banks that have lent generously to Greece that they are prepared to ignore their voters who, by 57% to 33% (10% don't know), oppose aid. In the future, says German Chancellor Angela Merkel, miscreants should be hit with sanctions. The words "moral hazard" apparently were not mentioned.
It is difficult to tell just how effective the Greece bailout will be in stemming the contagion spreading to other euroland countries. There are too many ifs.
Spain's debt-to-GDP ratio is only about half that of Greece's, and it might escape further downgrading of its debt if its socialist government can be frightened out of its lethargy. But with president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero insisting the worst is over, stasis is more likely than action. Italy tapped the bond markets for €6.5 billion last week, and found investors relatively eager to buy its IOUs at rates below those on outstanding debt. If it can stick with the spending cuts engineered by finance minister Giulio Tremonti, and bring down its deficit, running at 5.2% of GDP (Greece's is 13.6%), Italy might avoid a downgrade.
Portugal has tightened and accelerated its austerity program, and might avoid a further downgrade if it follows through.
Ireland's economic-stabilization program and its recapitalization of its banks are deemed to be working, and if the Irish continue to remain on their couches and in their pubs rather than take to the streets, the flow of red ink might abate before the nation's debt level becomes unmanageable. And if British voters put a deficit-cutting government in place on Thursday, the nation might avoid losing its triple-A rating
It is difficult to tell just how effective the Greece bailout will be in stemming the contagion spreading to other euroland countries. There are too many ifs.
Spain's debt-to-GDP ratio is only about half that of Greece's, and it might escape further downgrading of its debt if its socialist government can be frightened out of its lethargy. But with president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero insisting the worst is over, stasis is more likely than action. Italy tapped the bond markets for €6.5 billion last week, and found investors relatively eager to buy its IOUs at rates below those on outstanding debt. If it can stick with the spending cuts engineered by finance minister Giulio Tremonti, and bring down its deficit, running at 5.2% of GDP (Greece's is 13.6%), Italy might avoid a downgrade.
Portugal has tightened and accelerated its austerity program, and might avoid a further downgrade if it follows through.
Ireland's economic-stabilization program and its recapitalization of its banks are deemed to be working, and if the Irish continue to remain on their couches and in their pubs rather than take to the streets, the flow of red ink might abate before the nation's debt level becomes unmanageable. And if British voters put a deficit-cutting government in place on Thursday, the nation might avoid losing its triple-A rating
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